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19 Jan
Posted by Shyam as Opinions
Now as we have entered into a new year,every one must be having some expectations from the markets to reach some particular levels. A bit of search showed some mind blowing numbers.Well this is from a study of Fibonacci ratios which are used for making targets for the markets in future.We have already seen some rally coming in the markets in the last four consecutive years.So theres always a hope for the markets to continue the same momentum.
This system that I am now going to put forward is a method of technical analysis based on Fibonacci Ratios which has given some considerable results in the past.Now I’ll describe the method in brief to find out the market prediction for the year ‘08.
Here the lowest monthly closing on the markets is subtracted from the highest monthly closing in a given year.This gives us the range for a particular year.Then this is multiplied with Fibonacci ratios of 0.382,0.618,1 and 1.618 to get different multiples.Then these multiples are added to the tops and subtracted from the bottoms for that year to get the targets and support levels for that particular year.
Lets understand this with an example.The highest monthly closing in ‘07 was 20286 in Dec and the lowest closing was 12938 in Feb which gives a range of 7348.Now multiplying this with the Fibonacci ratios we get 4 figures like 2807,4541,7348,11890.Then they are added to the highest monthly closing of 20286. So the possible targets for the sensex in ‘08 are 23094, 24828, 27635 and …..hold on …the upper most target is 32177.Isn’t that amazing.
Now some proof from the past to validate this system of Fibonacci ratios to calculate the targets.
Year Fibonacci target Target Achieved
2004 6938 6617
2005 9584 9442
2006 14645 14035
2007 20043 20498
The targets so achieved can be in the range of +/- 5% accuracy levels.Coming to reality much depends upon the outlook of the economy and business in general.The US markets have also a role to play.Among concerns of slow down in US markets and subprime issues,the targets may look a bit stretched at this point of time.
But if everything moves on well and if there is stability in the Govt at center we are all set to realize the targets in the next 12 months.There are ups and downs in the markets which we saw even in 2007.The current bearish trend might upset a few investors but just remain positive.The inflation is under 5% target set by the RBI.And the Indian economy is slated to grow at 9% in the coming year.This will surely lead to heavy inflow from the FIIs and in turn the return of the bulls.
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6 Responses
Paramjit
January 20th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
1Hey nice blog, I came across it by chance but nice one. I also write a blog on personal finance, http://www.finance2money.com . Can you give me permission to link articles from my blog to your blog.
Shyam
January 20th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
2Thanxs for your compliments,you can feel free to link articles from my blog.
cheers.
Gunter
January 20th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
3Nice blog. Came here with no plan, but I’m glad I did
Shyam
January 21st, 2008 at 1:40 am
4Thats good to hear that from you Gunter.Hopefully i shall come with more useful articles over here.
Tanveer
January 26th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
5Hey thats a good blog.
Lin Ennis
February 17th, 2008 at 10:13 pm
6I’d heard of Fibonacci ratios before but had no idea what they were. Now that I read your explanation - thanks for what appears to be a very simple one - I wonder whether a chimpanzee pulling four numbers from a hat might produce a similar margin of error.
Actually, the numbers came out pretty close to target, but I can’t for the life of me understand what seems like the randomness of the four multiples.
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